The Truth shall set you free.
A closeout statement by Paul Pierce, netting 16 points in the 2nd half of a pivotal game 3, has the Raptors on the brink of elimination. What was expected to be a grind-it-out, 7 game series is essentially over, with a 4 game comeback a near impossibility (actually, it’s never been done).
While most Raptor fans are hoping to see just one more home game at the now famous Jurassic Park, Pierce has no intention of returning to Toronto, locking away his passport upon his return to DC. Even if they do make a return north of the boarder, changes are obviously needed this coming offseason. No one is untouchable, including head coach Dwane Casey, who could very well be an easy scapegoat after a disappointing end to the season.
Here’s a look at what the Raptors could look like next season, and what moves they should make in order to round out a rotation that’s lacking that “it” factor.
Raptors Free Agents
Lou Williams
Amir Johnson
Landry Fields
Chuck Hayes
Tyler Hansbrough
Greg Stiemsma
Marcus Camby (waived)
Plenty of big contracts come off the books for the Raps this upcoming off-season. Fields and Hayes alone will free up nearly $14.5 million, while Camby’s $4 million cap hit will be a nice extra. Johnson may not be a $7.5 million dollar man anymore (was he ever?) due to injury, but he is still a serviceable big man who loves Toronto. For the right price, like 8th man money, would be a great depth player to bring back. But his time as a starter should be over as he nears 30 and has already spent over 10 years in the league.
Reigning 6th Man of the Year Lou Williams will also need to be re-signed, as his ability to create off the bench as a combo guard proved to be extremely effective, and helped balance the Raptors attack. Outside of that, most of the Raptors free agents are expendable, and with 9 players already on the hook for 2015, can be let go.
Cap Space
Currently, the Raptors will enter the 2015 season with just over $48 million devoted to nine players, plus just over $1 million for their 1st round rookie pick. What the Raptors do with that pick remains to be seen, but based on their free agents, the Dinos will be thin up front and could use help at power forward.
Assuming the Raptors lock up Lou Williams for around $8 million and Amir Johnson for around $5 million, the Raptors will be right around the salary cap threshold, with roughly 3 million left to fill out the roster. However, if they wait to sign those players, they will have nearly $16 million to sign an impact player.
The core of Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, and Jonas Valanciunas are likely to get another shot together, even after a disappointing showing from their floor general and big man of the future. Lowry will be in the 2nd year of his new contract, and will no doubt look to make amends after a disappointing post All-Star break showing. Valanciunas needs to continue to make progress as a defender and rim protector, but big men usually fall in that category.
Outside of those three, the Raptors could certainly look to upgrade their lineup. Terrance Ross has had a second straight poor showing in the playoffs, and can only ride his franchise tying 51 point performance for so long. He might be more serviceable as a bench contributor after failing to become the 3 and D small forward the Raptors sorely need.
As for power forward, the Raptors haven’t had a difference maker at the position since Chris Bosh left town. Picking at #20 will likely leave much to be desired as far as starting level bigs go, but they can surely find some depth at the position.
That leaves Toronto likely to do some shopping to bring in a high end 4 to help balance the starting lineup, and allow Valanciunas to take on a smaller role and continue his development. If the salary cap comes in around $66 million (this season is $63) a difference maker can be had for the right price.
Free Agents
The high end players are unlikely to make their way north of the boarder. LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love are likely to either stay with their respective teams or sign in big markets like New York or L.A. Paul Millsap could be an intriguing fit, as could Draymond Green, but a number of suitors will be calling their names as well.
One of the more intriguing options could be Toronto’s own Tristian Thompson, a restricted free agent who turned down good money from the Cavaliers last season. Thompson has impressed so far as the primary big off the Cavaliers bench, and the franchise certainly sees enough value in him despite the additions of Kevin Love and Timofey Mozgov.
However, General Manager Masai Ujiri has already mentioned that the Raptors will go after a Canadian in the near future, and the Raptors can offer the big man a prominent role on his hometown team. He may not be the offensive force the Raptors need, but with scoring guards all over the roster, his rebounding on both ends could be a huge boost as he continues his growth. At worst he appears to be a better version of Amir Johnson, and depending on how far the Cavaliers go this offseason, he could offer some valuable playoff experience.
It will be hard to pry him away from a Cavs squad that appears to be a champion contender for the next few years, but the fit could be too tempting to resist.
A lineup of Lowry, DeRozan, Ross, Thompson, and Valanciunas, featuring Greivis Vasquez, Patrick Patterson, James Johnson, Bruno Caboclo, Lucas Nogueira, a 1st round pick, and a hopefully re-signed Lou Williams may not move the dial too much, but with very manageable contracts and a young and still developing roster, it could be a simple addition that makes sense for the near future. This year’s batch of free agents pales in comparison to that of 2016, and with a drastic jump in salary cap expected at that time, drastic changes could be set the franchise back plenty of years. This team will likely again contend for the Atlantic crown with the team already on hand, so baby steps will likely be made.
Change in Coach
While these changes in the roster won’t change much, a change in coach may be the answer for this team to take the next step. Dwane Casey has done an admirable job at the helm, but the ineffectiveness of this team in the postseason has shown that something is clearly missing. After alternating years between top 10 defense and top 10 offense, this team has yet to form an identity. In the postseason, their flaws become too obvious, and they fail to make the changes necessary to overcome their competition in a 7 game series.
While it’s impressive a defensive minded coach like Casey can have a top 10 offense, the drop off in D, and the stagnated growth of Valanciunas on the end, certainly could lead to his demise in Toronto. The success of the likes of Steve Kerr in Golden State only makes a move at the helm even more likely, with the Warriors making the jump from good to great with little roster turnover.
Imagine the Raptors make huge headlines by adding Canadian legend Steve Nash as their next head coach? While he may not be looking into jumping into a coaching career after just retiring from the league, the Raptors would clearly value his ability to act as a coach during his time on the hardwood, and his offensive repertoire would definitely help make the offensive more dynamic than the iso-ball we’ve seen time and time again. While the defence might take a hit, it’s not like the Dino’s haven’t been trying to simply outscore their opponents all season anyway. If Casey can’t make this team a strong defensive squad, few other head coaches will be able to either.
Outside of this unlikely scenario, there are a number of possibilities amongst the ranks of NBA assistants and college coaches looking to make the jump. Giving Patrick Ewing his 1st crack as a head coach could expedite the development of Valanciunas. Iowa State’s Fred Hoiberg has long been considered one of college basketball’s greatest minds.
Expectations
While the above are very modest changes, GM Ujiri has shown he has no problem shaking things up. This team still lacks a true number one option, as Lowry and DeRozan both offer better production as true number 2’s. Valanciunas and Ross will undoubtedly get another shot as they still are on rookie contracts, while the team’s depth is an affordable strength. A franchise altering trade like we saw in Denver seems unlikely as this teams built more on depth than star power, and few top flight free agents consider Toronto a viable destination despite the backing of a focal fan base.
Modest improvement in the rotation, re-signing Lou Williams, and a coaching change appear to be the most likely transformations in the team this upcoming offseason, especially considering the weakness of the East. The team will again be a playoff squad regardless of what happens this offseason. But improvement needs to be shown with the 2016 All-Star game coming up, and another postseason will have the Dino’s looking to shake things up to via as a competitive market for the free agent class of 2016.
A demoralizing showing against the Wizards could be one of the best things for the Raptors future moving forward, as it’s shown that complacency cannot be accepted. The Raptors are clearly making strides to move into the upper echelon of Eastern franchises, but no one is untouchable, and there is still work to do.
THE BASELINE JUMPER 